2:00PM Water Cooler 11/29/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chook Track of the Day

Good-looking Flycatcher, Megantoni Camp 3, Tinkanari, Cuzco, Peru. At this time, the flycatcher is good-looking. Yesterday, the flycatcher was ornate!

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Proud pro-labor President”

As a proud pro-labor President, I am reluctant to override the ratification procedures and views of those that voted towards the settlement.

However on this case – the place the financial impression of a shutdown would damage thousands and thousands – I consider Congress should use its powers to undertake this deal.

— President Biden (@POTUS) November 29, 2022

“However on this case – the place the financial impression of a shutdown would damage thousands and thousands – I consider Congress should use its powers to undertake this deal give the employees 4 sick days.” Mounted it for ya.

“Assertion from President Joe Biden on Averting a Rail Shutdown” [WhiteHouse.gov]. “I share staff’ concern in regards to the incapacity to take depart to get better from sickness or look after a sick member of the family. Nobody ought to have to decide on between their job and their well being – or the well being of their kids. I’ve pressed laws and proposals to advance the reason for paid depart in my two years in workplace, and can proceed to take action. Each different developed nation on the planet has such protections for its staff. However at this essential second for our financial system, within the vacation season, we can not let our strongly held conviction for higher outcomes for staff deny staff the advantages of the discount they reached, and hurl this nation right into a devastating rail freight shutdown.” • So, when the employees don’t have any leverage, we don’t give them what they demand. And when the employees have leverage, we don’t give them what they demand.

A simple layup even for Marco Rubio:

RUBIO: “Simply because Congress has the authority to impose a heavy-handed resolution doesn’t imply we must always. It’s fallacious for the Biden Administration, which has did not battle for staff, to ask Congress to impose a deal the employees themselves have rejected. <1/4>

— Michael Needham (@MikeNeedham) November 29, 2022

Now could be a very good time for the Progressive Caucus to roll on its again, expose its stomach, and widdle just like the little pet it’s. Nothing on this on AOC or Jayapal’s Twitter feeds….

“Biden requires Congress to behave to cease rail strike” [Roll Call]. “The union membership that has rejected the tentative settlement has cited ongoing considerations a few lack of paid sick days. However Biden, within the assertion in regards to the want for Congress to behave rapidly, rejected the thought of lawmakers reopening the phrases of the settlement. ‘Some in Congress wish to modify the deal to both enhance it for labor or for administration. Nonetheless well-intentioned, any adjustments would threat delay and a debilitating shutdown. The settlement was reached in good religion by each side,’ Biden mentioned.” • Translation of “each side”: Union administration doesn’t signify the employees, the vast majority of whom rejected the deal. Surprising, I do know.

2022

NY: “GOP voter turnout at presidential ranges, outpaces Democrats in N.Y. governor’s race” [Times-Union]. “Republican turnout was considerably increased than for Democrats, 63 to 47 %, in keeping with an evaluation of unofficial election outcomes obtained by the Instances Union from the state Board of Elections.” • Hmm. The New York Democrats actually are in disarray.

TX: “Right here’s why we nonetheless don’t know what went fallacious in Harris County on Election Day” [Texas Tribune]. “Even now, election staffers are persevering with to name every of the greater than 700 election judges who labored the polling websites to search out out precisely what number of places opened late, what number of ran out of paper and what number of had points with voting machines. An investigation by the county’s district lawyer launched earlier this week alleges a minimum of 23 polling places had paper poll shortages. Harris is uncommon amongst giant Texas counties in not having an efficient system for logging its polling place issues. Others have a better, quicker option to collect that information that doesn’t require calling a whole lot of individuals individually and taking down notes. As an alternative, election software program troubleshooting instruments, used as of late by many election administrators throughout the nation, may help monitor and hold observe of each subject reported at polling websites. These instruments have options that alert officers of a difficulty intimately and supply standing updates of the decision in actual time.”

2024

“Biden Helped Democrats Avert a ’22 Catastrophe. What About ’24?” [New York Times]. “Now, as Mr. Biden mulls a call over whether or not to hunt a second time period, interviews with greater than two dozen Democratic elected officers and strategists recommend that, no matter misgivings some Democrats might harbor about one other Biden candidacy, his celebration is extra inclined for now to defer to him than to attempt to power a frontal conflict with a sitting president. In latest days, officers starting from Consultant Henry Cuellar, one of the vital conservative Home Democrats, to Consultant Pramila Jayapal, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, have mentioned they’d help one other Biden bid. In non-public conversations, youthful Democratic operatives have shifted from discussing potential job alternatives in a aggressive presidential main to gaming out what a Biden re-election marketing campaign would possibly seem like.” • Fascinating to see “operative” utilized in a impartial, non-judgemental means (one thing I have a tendency to not do).

“Turning Level for Garland as Justice Dept. Grapples With Trump Inquiries” [New York Times]. “However the appointment of a particular counsel, Jack Smith, on Nov. 18, and a painstakingly deliberate rollout of the announcement, signaled a big, if delicate, shift in that strategy. Garland has proven a rising willingness to function exterior his consolation zone — throughout the confines of the rule ebook — in response to the extraordinary circumstance he now finds himself in: investigating Trump, a high contender for the 2024 nomination of a celebration that’s more and more rallying across the cost that Garland has weaponized the Justice Division towards Republicans.” • Look. Aren’t these partitions taking slightly a very long time to shut in?

Republican Funhouse

“The postliberal crackup: The GOP’s post-midterm civil warfare begins with the New Proper” [Salon]. • You’ll like this, if it’s the type of factor you want. However I can’t consider these concepts are being taken severely (which is an enormous weak point of mine; typically silly concepts are very highly effective).

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Republicans in Arizona, Pennsylvania counties decline to certify midterm election outcomes” [ABC]. “Republicans on the election boards of Cochise County in Arizona and Luzerne County in Pennsylvania voted towards motions to certify the election outcomes there.” Ann English, [Cochise County’s] board chair and a Democrat: “[O]ur machine rely and hand rely matched 100%.” So what do we’d like the machines for? Extra: “In Luzerne County, two Republican members of the elections board voted towards certifying the midterm outcomes, two Democrats voted to certify and one Democratic member abstained. Luzerne County confronted a paper poll scarcity on Election Day, however voting hours have been prolonged to make sure that all ballots may very well be forged.” • It’s true, as a paper poll advocate, I haven’t addressed provide chain points….

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I can’t name a winter surge, however I’m not uncalling it both. Excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation and continued improve in positivity (Walgreens), and the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens) are all greater than a little bit unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). Keep secure on the market! (As one would possibly count on at first of a vacation surge, wastewater in Queens County, NY (JFK/LGA), Cook dinner County, IL (ORD), and Los Angeles County (LAX) are all elevated, with JFK/LGA and LAX being extra elevated than final week, and ORD the identical. Hospitalization in BQ.1*-dominated New York continued to extend earlier than Thanksgiving, so let’s see what occurs after.

• “There is no such thing as a such factor as ‘herd immunity.’ Why the continued risks of COVID-19 are actual” [USA Today]. “All of us want to acknowledge the risks of COVID-19 and the dangers it imposes to our long-term well being and our nation’s workforce. Lengthy COVID happens in roughly 30% to 35% of circumstances. It generally happens with even gentle illness and with reinfections. The severity is additive with every publicity and the signs can typically persist for over a yr (the longest sufferers have been adopted). There is no such thing as a such factor as ‘herd immunity’ and I encourage to vary with the CDC relating to “immune debt” inflicting the rise in respiratory infections, and there assertion relating to Respiratory Syncytial Virus infections: ‘And so these kids, if you’ll, must turn into contaminated [with RSV] to maneuver ahead as a result of it’s a illness quite common in kids.’ ‘Immune debt’ is simply one other push for ‘herd immunity’ and to make use of this to clarify the rise in RSV infections is thoughts boggling, since we had a big variety of infections final yr. On the finish of Nov. 2022, Pediatric hospitals have been crammed with RSV, however at the moment there have been corresponding extra RSV infections within the earlier yr. We’re on observe to have a fair bigger RSV season, however ‘immune debt’ is an unlikely etiology. One other rationalization for rising RSV hospitalizations is ‘immune theft’ attributable to COVID-19 which as of final March had contaminated over 75% of kids. Mounting analysis has proven that COVID-19 is related to immune dysfunction which might persist for a minimum of 8 months (the longest time studied).” • The particular person at CDC with whom the writer “begs to vary” is, after all, America’s favourite eugenicist, Rochelle Walensky.

• Maskstravaganza: “However everybody could make their very own private threat evaluation”:

“I felt small.”

• Maskstravaganza: One tiny anecdote, maybe an outlier:

My very own anecdote: I look ahead to “Let me see your smile!” tales, as a result of they tick me off a lot. Only a few of them these days. I did discover one—

• Maskstravaganza: UC = College of Calgary:

I pity the “Girl.” She’s trusting, and two years into the pandemic, believes that plexiglass screens work. Horrible, horrible communications from the Canadian public well being institution….

• “New Covid outbreak on a cruise ship headed for Melbourne after ‘barely elevated’ circumstances brought about it to skip a cease at one other main Australian port” [Daily Mail]. Subsequent to final paragraph: “In the meantime a limousine driver instructed Mr Mitchell his firm had 13 folks booked for assortment when the [S.S. Petri Dish The Grand Princess] arrives in Melbourne however mentioned he gained’t be amassing them as he ‘can not threat’ his drivers and their households.” • The phrase you’re on the lookout for is “plague ship.”

• “SARS-CoV-2 and the Eyes: A Evaluation of the Literature on Transmission, Detection, and Ocular Manifestations” [Medical Science Monitor]. A assessment of the literature. From the Summary: “Throughout the coronavirus illness 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, quite a few studies of ocular anomalies occurring in sufferers contaminated with extreme acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have emerged. Probably the most steadily reported pathology is conjunctivitis, which often is the first or solely scientific manifestation of the illness. Involvement of SARS-CoV-2 in growth of alterations in different ocular constructions was advised, together with the cornea, the retina, and blood vessels. Doable mechanisms embrace direct exercise of the viral agent, in addition to systemic inflammatory response with accompanying thromboembolic problems. Genetic materials of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in ocular secretions of contaminated people, together with asymptomatic sufferers. Furthermore, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), a receptor protein utilized by the virus to enter the cell, has been discovered on the floor of varied constructions of the attention, which signifies a threat of transmission by means of ocular tissues. Due to this fact, it’s essential to make use of eye safety by medical professionals having contact with probably contaminated sufferers.” • For me, an epidemiological research is the [sic] “gold commonplace.” I haven’t seen one for transmission by means of the eyes.

• “COVID-19 circumstances to leap 80% by Dec. 7, Mayo forecasts” [Beckers Hospital Review]. I’m utilizing the Wayback Machine for this, since (spookily?) the unique URL throws an Error 500. Appears like Becker, who is sweet, took this down, rightly as far as I can inform. I can’t discover the 80% forecast on the Mayo web page, which Mayo says is being taken down anyhow.

•

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “purple map”). (That is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to have a look at, not you.)

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, revealed November 28:

3.2%. Yesterday was 3.0%. These charges are usually not smoothed, so we actually can’t make sure if there’s a prepare rolling or not. Nonetheless, we now haven’t solely a rise, however a rise within the fee of improve. Let’s wait and see.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), November 22:

November 21:

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo totally incompatible with defending your self towards a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), November 13:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly, although decrease than CDC. XBB developing on the charts.

Variant information, nationwide (CDC), November 5 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly. Observe the looks of XBB, and see the highlighted word: Like BQ.1*, XBB seems all of the sudden when CDC decides to disaggregate the information. Precisely as with CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map,” a lag is launched, this time by CDC’s decision-making course of; Walgreens had XBB final week, however CDC has it solely this week. I don’t see what goal the aggregation serves. If the difficulty is a jillion low-circulation variants would make the desk impossibly lengthy and complicated for customers, that’s a UI/UX subject; deal with it with software program. Have a slider/filter that aggregates variants underneath 1%, say. Enable scrolling the outcomes. No matter. However cease concealing information!

New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are increased:

• Right here is Queens County, NY (JFK/LGA), now flashing purple for the vacations:

• As a examine, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date November 29:

Lambert right here: As with positivity, these charges are usually not smoothed, so we actually can’t make sure if there’s a prepare rolling or not. Nonetheless, we now haven’t solely a rise, however a rise within the fee of improve.

Deaths

Demise fee (Our World in Knowledge):

Whole: 1,104,879 – 1,104,755 = 124 (124 * 365 = 45,260 deaths per yr, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, each day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at the moment.

The Bezzle:

Right here’s the transcript of an interview with Anthropic’s founders. It’s… outstanding.

At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 60 Greed (earlier shut: 59 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 29 at 1:34 PM EST.

The Screening Room

Tons and many element on Kubrick’s Barry Lyndon: The NASA lens, the grain of the movie….

By “doesn’t really feel actual” have to be meant “doesn’t really feel like an oil portray.”

Civil Warfare Research

Holy moley, Radical Republican Thaddeus Stevens:

“Talking earlier than his folks at dwelling in his impassioned plea for this scheme of destroy to Southern wealth-holders….” And word the chapter title: “Confiscation.” Makes you marvel what the Andrew Johnson impeachment and acquittal have been actually about.

Zeitgeist Watch

Look on my works ye mighty:

China can’t appear to improve its HVAC programs both.

Black Injustice Tipping Level

“The Black Traders Who Had been Burned by Bitcoin” [The Atlantic]. “[T]housands of Black buyers… have seen the worth of their crypto investments plummet. The prototypical face of crypto is younger, white, techy, and male, however maybe no different demographic group has been more durable hit by the crypto bust than Black Individuals, who’re half as more likely to personal shares as their white counterparts however considerably extra more likely to personal cryptocurrencies. As a result of Black buyers piled into the crypto market at or close to its most up-to-date high, a lot of these buyers are actually within the purple. That’s particularly worrisome as a result of Black buyers had so little to lose to start with: Younger Black males are one of many poorest segments of American society. Additionally it is worrisome as a result of many Black buyers poured cash into bitcoin as a result of they discovered it so onerous to construct generational wealth within the first place. Discriminated towards by banks, neglected by funding managers, redlined and saddled with academic debt, many turned to extra esoteric alternatives.” • Precisely as a era of Black wealth was destroyed by the Nice Monetary Crash and Obama’s subsequent housing insurance policies.

Class Warfare

“Inequality in Society Drives Inventory-Market Efficiency” [Wall Street Journal]. “[S]tocks and different monetary property are simply tokens whose value is set by provide and demand. More often than not it’s demand that issues most, with giant quantities of provide—IPOs and secondary points—normally a symptom of excessively excessive costs. It seems that one of many greatest drivers of that demand in the long term is how unequal society is. The argument is fairly easy, as laid out by Jacques Cesar, a former managing companion at Oliver Wyman now main a analysis undertaking for the administration consultancy: The wealthy save extra and are extra keen to take the additional threat of placing their financial savings into shares. Mr. Cesar calculates that one family incomes $1 million a yr would put about 20 occasions as a lot into shares as the overall invested by 20 households every with an earnings of $50,000, primarily based on averages for his or her earnings teams, despite the fact that their general earnings is identical. Elevate inequality and demand for shares goes up, and so do costs. This doesn’t imply conventional monetary metrics are irrelevant. Nevertheless it helps clarify why there was an upward pattern in valuations over the previous 40 years, as U.S. inequality has soared. Extra millionaires and billionaires are shopping for shares as a result of there are extra millionaires and billionaires. On the similar time, there are extra millionaires and billionaires as a result of revenue margins are excessive—for a lot of causes, together with elevated monopoly energy—and corporations select to pay their high folks far more than prior to now. ‘There’s a duality,’ Mr. Cesar says. ‘Finally they’re two faces of the identical coin. [Company] earnings are each trigger and consequence of excessive earnings inequality.’” • A duality. Or a contradiction.

“Railroading staff” [Popular Information]. “The dispute boils down to at least one subject: paid sick depart. … Railroad firms have adamantly refused to incorporate any short-term paid depart. Meaning rail staff should report back to work, even when they’re sick, or forfeit their pay. “It’s an insane and merciless system, and these guys are fed up with it,” Peter Kennedy, chief negotiator for the upkeep staff union, which rejected the deal, mentioned. Rail staff say that some colleagues come to work with COVID as a result of they’ll’t afford to take time without work. The upkeep staff are looking for a take care of a minimum of 4 paid sick days. The railroad firms, in keeping with the union, are unwilling to barter.” • 4. Sick. Days.

“Reviews from Putting College of California Philosophy Graduate College students” [Daily Nous]. “Throughout my time in San Diego I’ve at all times spent greater than 50% of my earnings on hire. My landlord lately raised my hire so I’m now paying about 75% of my earnings on hire. I merely can’t afford that. I’m looking for a spot to maneuver, however it’s almost not possible to discover a place. Not only a place that’s secure or moderately near campus. It’s almost not possible simply to discover a place, anyplace, that I can afford with my stipend. I work full-time over the summer season and attempt to discover methods to make extra cash throughout the educational yr, all simply to have the ability to pay my payments. It’s simple that I’d be a greater thinker and higher trainer if I had been capable of spend these numerous hours doing what I got here to UCSD to do as an alternative of spending that point attempting to outlive. It harms grad college students, our departments, the scholars we train, our universities, and the self-discipline of philosophy as a complete when grad college students are compelled to spend inordinate quantities of time making extra cash as an alternative of specializing in our work. That’s why we’d like extra money. ~ UCSD Philosophy Graduate Pupil.”

“The Tradition Staff Go On Strike” [The New Republic]. “This season tradition staff are organizing towards their very own exploitation. Professors of artwork, staff at museums, and assistants at a publishing home have all gone on strike or staged public protests throughout contract negotiations. Name this a black-turtleneck-worker rebellion slightly than a white-collar one. ‘Wages are stagnant and we earn far decrease salaries than our friends elsewhere,’ the union representing workers on the Brooklyn Museum lately tweeted. They’ve been busy protesting exterior their work web site. Throughout one motion, staff held up indicators decrying the vacuity of the VIP opening for the museum’s high fashion vogue exhibit: One learn, ‘You possibly can’t eat status.’ (The union is asking for a 7 % wage improve this yr and raises of 4 % per yr for every of the 2 years following.) Unions are at the moment on strike on the writer HarperCollins and on the College of California system, the place 48,000 educational staff are sitting out their underpaid educating gigs.”

Information of the Wired

I stay, at the moment, unwired.

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