2:00PM Water Cooler 3/1/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, I’ve been wrong-footed by a family emergency. Extra on Politics shortly (although the Covid part, although I say it, is particularly wealthy as we speak). –lambert UPDATE Completed!

Chicken Tune of the Day

Widespread Potoo, Mata ciliar do Rio Jacaré-Guaçu, São Paulo, Brazil. That is nice. It feels like summer season nights will quickly sound once more.

Politics

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels.” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Little-known scientific workforce behind new evaluation on covid-19 origins” [WaPo]. “However the companies are united, the official mentioned, within the view that the virus was not developed as a bioweapon. ‘‘Lab’ doesn’t equal ‘man-made,’ the official mentioned, noting that lab staff may have collected the virus in nature and saved it on the lab from which it escaped. ‘Even when it was a leak from a lab,’ the individual added, intelligence analysts ‘nonetheless suppose it might be a naturally occurring virus.’… ‘The underside line stays the identical: Principally nobody actually is aware of,’ one of many officers mentioned.” Oh. And: “U.S. officers confirmed that an up to date evaluation of covid-19’s origins was accomplished this yr, and mentioned the doc was primarily based on contemporary knowledge in addition to new evaluation by specialists from eight intelligence companies and the Nationwide Intelligence Council.” • Sounds to me like a contemporary batch of specialists was the important thing issue, not knowledge. (And we’re actually placing what The Blob will use as a justification for battle with China within the palms of the nuclear weapons advanced? Actually?)

“The Washington Publish Is Coming for Your Retirement Advantages” [FAIR]. Quoting WaPo: “Mr. Biden was amongst 88 senators who voted in 1983 for a bipartisan grand cut price, negotiated by a fee led by Alan Greenspan and signed into regulation by President Ronald Reagan, that rescued Social Safety. Forty years later, if he and Republican leaders are prepared to work in good religion, Mr. Biden may safeguard the best legacies of each the New Deal and the Nice Society.” And: “To translate: In 1983, Congress ‘rescued’ Social Safety by chopping it. The 1983 regulation didn’t change the precise age at which you’ll be able to retire and draw Social Safety advantages. It left that at 62. As a substitute, it merely mentioned you’d get much less cash for retiring at any level earlier than the brand new full retirement age, which reached 67 final yr. For example, these retiring at 62 as we speak face a 50% bigger minimize in advantages for early retirement in comparison with earlier than 2000. The Publish apparently remembers these reforms fondly. And it needs extra.”

2024

“Williamson turns into Democratic major’s 1st Biden challenger” [Associated Press]. “Bestselling self-help writer Marianne Williamson, who introduced quirky spiritualism to the 2020 presidential race, has introduced she’s working for president once more, turning into the primary main Democrat to problem President Joe Biden for his get together’s nomination in 2024. Williamson, 70 [i.e., a spring chicken], is formally kicking off her marketing campaign with an occasion in Washington on Saturday. With out mentioning former President Donald Trump, she famous in a weekend Fb publish that his unconventional White Home win makes it ‘odd for anybody to suppose they will know who can win the presidency.’ ‘I’m not placing myself by means of this once more simply so as to add to the dialog,’ Williamson wrote. ‘I’m working for president to assist deliver an aberrational chapter of our historical past to a detailed, and to assist deliver forth a brand new starting.’Williamson working in opposition to a sitting president from her personal get together can be the longest of lengthy pictures below any circumstances. However that’s very true this cycle, because the Democratic institution — and even potential presidential hopefuls who may have competed with Biden from the left or center — has closed ranks with outstanding uniformity behind the president.” • I don’t see what’s “outstanding” about it; Democrat electeds are authoritarian followers. The DNC ought to by no means have booted Williamson out of the 2020 debates, and wouldn’t have, in the event that they have been small-d Democrat. I’m not a lot on woo woo stuff (e.g., mainstream macro), however Williamson was an attention-grabbing and perceptive determine. Maybe that was their downside along with her.

“Trump’s February bump” [Axios]. “4 new polls present former President Trump has obtained a lift in Republican assist — with one survey exhibiting him hitting 50% assist in a crowded GOP area. After a shaky begin to his presidential marketing campaign, Trump has quietly discovered his footing during the last month. His go to to the derailment web site in East Palestine, Ohio — forward of President Biden and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — confirmed off a contact of empathy, a minimum of by Trump requirements. The previous president acquired out of his mega-rally consolation zone in favor of a number of small marketing campaign stops for ice cream in South Carolina and McDonald’s in Ohio, the place his impromptu visits have been well-received by the restaurant workers.” • I stored saying Trump appeared good. Nice visuals! However I don’t know what Axios means by “forward of.” Biden hasn’t visited East Palestine, and says he gained’t. You’ll be able to’t beat one thing with nothing!

“Ballot finds Trump beating Biden however DeSantis, Haley dropping” [The Hill]. “Trump holds a 4-point lead over Biden, with 46 p.c saying they might assist the previous president in a rematch in 2024 and 42 p.c saying they might again the present president, the Emerson School ballot discovered. Nevertheless, Biden leads DeSantis by 4 factors, 44 p.c to 40 p.c, and Haley by 3 factors, 40 p.c to 37 p.c, in separate match-ups, in accordance with the ballot.” • Margin of error yadda yadda yadda however numbers like that ought to chill the RINOs blood.

“Gov. Youngkin fires again at Biden’s criticism of ‘MAGA Republicans’ in Virginia: ‘Go to Ohio’” [FOX]. “‘He ought to go to Ohio,’ Youngkin advised Dana Perino and Invoice Hemmer Wednesday. ‘When there may be Individuals in want, and so they’re in want of management, our president ought to present up, and what he’s demonstrating is he’s going to decide on politics over individuals.’” What does that even imply? Right here’s the necessary half: “‘The problem we’ve acquired is Joe Biden would relatively attempt to divide us as a nation and attempt to put individuals on this field or that field versus proper now, deliver us collectively and acknowledge that we’ve to have unity in opposition to China,’ Youngkin mentioned.” • OK, the battle with China half acquired labored in, good, however these are actually not superb quotes. Youngkin wants to enhance his kind, or Trump will eat him for breakfast in debate.

MI: “Democrat Elissa Slotkin to hunt Michigan’s open Senate seat” [Associated Press]. “Slotkin, a 46-year-old former CIA intelligence officer and third-term consultant, is coming off a powerful victory in final yr’s midterms, successful reelection regardless of having been thought-about susceptible. Her contest in opposition to Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett was the third-most costly Home race in 2022.”

2023

IL: “Chicago mayor loses re-election bid after race dominated by crime” [Financial Times]. “Chicago voters ousted Mayor Lori Lightfoot on Tuesday evening, making her the primary mayor within the metropolis to lose re-election in 40 years…. Tuesday’s high vote-getter was Paul Vallas, who was appointed chief government of Chicago Public Faculties in 1995, later holding related posts in New Orleans and Philadelphia. The one white candidate within the race, Vallas hammered on the theme of public security and gained the backing of town’s police union. He gained 159,000 votes, or 35 per cent of the entire. Vallas’s marketing campaign strategist Joe Trippi famous ‘when you’re not secure to stroll the streets, nothing actually issues . . . I didn’t suppose we’d break 30 [per cent], however we’ve.’ Joe Trippi, nonetheless within the sport in any case these years. Extra: “Brandon Johnson, a commissioner in county authorities, positioned second within the race, with 92,000 votes, or 20 per cent of the entire. Johnson, a political progressive backed by the highly effective Chicago Academics Union, surged late within the race.” • I might imagibe most of Lightfoot’s 16% would go to Johnson, so the race may very well be nearer than it seems to be (though I’m certain Vallas will open a gusher of money).

WI: “The largest election of 2023 reaches remaining dash” [Politico]. “Thousands and thousands of {dollars} are flowing into the Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom race, because the state rockets towards an election that might determine the way forward for abortion rights, redistricting and extra in the important thing battleground state. The court docket has a 4-3 conservative majority, with one swing conservative justice who has damaged with the remainder of the ideological bloc on some main instances. The April 4 election may flip that dynamic to a liberal-leaning majority. The competition is poised to be the costliest state Supreme Courtroom race ever, with main exterior teams — significantly these targeted on abortion — dashing in funds. The earlier report was over $15 million for a 2004 Illinois contest, in accordance with the Brennan Heart for Justice. In Wisconsin, $10.4 million was spent on promoting alone within the runup to the first, in accordance with knowledge from the advert monitoring agency AdImpact. ‘This election is off the charts,’ mentioned Ben Wikler, chair of the state Democratic Celebration. ‘It’s off the charts when it comes to the stakes, it’s off the charts when it comes to how a lot cash is prone to be invested on each side, it’s off the charts when it comes to the variety of people who find themselves voting.’ The election, he added, ‘is the hinge on which Wisconsin’s political future will swing. And Wisconsin is the hinge on which nationwide politics swings.’” • I’m so outdated I can keep in mind when the nationwide Democrats and Obama didn’t give the Wisconsin state Democrats a dime after they have been first preventing Scott Walker. Maybe the Norms Fairy didn’t just like the Wisconsin State Capitol occupation, which occurred prior (and previous to Occupy correct, curiously).

Republican Funhouse

Dwell tweeting the Home Republican Covid Listening to. Marty Makary, Martin Kulldorff, Jay Bhattacharya:

Marty Makary, a surgeon with no experience in public well being or epidemiology, making a variety of ridiculous claims concerning the virus and vaccines. Suggests no wholesome kids have died from the virus, boosters pose extra threat than the virus to younger individuals.

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) February 28, 2023

“We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April” [Marty Makary, Wall Street Journal]. • From February 18, 2021. Dude:

Typically incorrect, however by no means unsure, now testifying to the Home.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Ka-ching:

Dan Goldman (D), a newly elected congressman from NY, wasted no time buying and selling shares as politician

Simply 3 weeks after being sworn in, he traded over $5.5M {dollars} together with $2M in buys & $3M in sells

He was additionally simply appointed to the Committee of Oversights and Accountability

— Nancy Pelosi Inventory Tracker ♟ (@PelosiTracker_) February 28, 2023

Realignment and Legitimacy

“‘Larger Idaho’ motion to soak up conservative rural counties from liberal Oregon positive factors momentum” [FOX]. “Shifting the Idaho-Oregon border would require the approval of each state legislatures in addition to the U.S. Congress. Regardless of the assist of Idaho lawmakers, the concept could face higher resistance within the Democrat-controlled Oregon legislature. Oregon state Sen. Dennis Linthicum, a Republican, has filed an identical proposal to start talks with Idaho, however the proposal is unlikely to make it out of committee. Nonetheless, proponents of Larger Idaho observe that 11 counties in japanese Oregon have voted for poll measures to discover the transfer and that, in accordance with some polling, Idahoans would welcome increasing the state boundary. In Oregon, in the meantime, polling has proven a roughly equal variety of voters assist and oppose the concept, with about one-fifth of the inhabitants undecided. Some critics have warned in opposition to ‘self-segregating by ideology,’ saying the creation of a Larger Idaho would gas division and disgruntled residents can transfer in the event that they’re sad with how their state is governing. Others say Idaho legislators needs to be specializing in their very own state relatively than serving to Oregon residents. One other concern is that sparsely populated areas have excessive charges of Medicaid enrollment and may very well be an added expense to Idaho taxpayers.” •

#COVID19

Appears to be like like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. (I nonetheless suppose “One thing Terrible” is coming, nonetheless. I imply, in addition to what we already find out about.) Keep secure on the market!

• Readers, because the nationwide knowledge programs in the US are being vandalized, let’s begin gathering hyperlinks to state knowledge, too. If readers would ship me hyperlinks (see Plant under) to their favourite State and native dashboards/wastewater websites, that might be nice. Canadians, too! Or depart a hyperlink in Feedback.

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge).

Sources, United States (Native): CA (dashboard), Marin; CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NM (dashboard); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OR (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Festoonic, FM, Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JF, Joe, John, JM (2), JW, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, otisyves, Petal (5), RK, RL, RM, Rod, tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White. (Readers, when you depart your hyperlink in feedback, I credit score you by your deal with. When you ship it to me through e mail, I take advantage of your initials (within the absence of a deal with. I’m not placing your deal with subsequent to your contribution as a result of I hope and anticipate the checklist shall be lengthy, and I need it to be simple for readers to scan.)

• Extra like this, please! Whole: 1 6 11 18 20 22 26 27/50 (54% of US states). We should always checklist states that shouldn’t have Covid assets, or have stopped updating their websites, so others don’t look fruitlessly. Thanks!

Search for the Helpers

I’m submitting this right here, versus masking, as a result of this seems to be like citizen science for masks testing, and the tactic appears very ingenious. Maybe readers can remark. Click on by means of for the entire outcomes:

And the ingenious methodology:

See Maskstravaganza for my feedback on fit-testing. What strikes me about this Tweet is that it’s one thing that might in all probability be organized as a bunch, for the utmost variation of facial shapes, and the utmost variety of masks examined. Couldn’t the masking commerce assocation publicize such efforts?

* * *

Discovering like-minded individuals on (sorry) Fb:

Thought I might add this right here in case anybody is . Locations to seek out individuals who “Nonetheless Covid” in your space & on-line: https://t.co/T4ND4XbrpF & https://t.co/sP5wq4fAw5 You may as well search on FB “Nonetheless Coviding ____” & see if there is a particular group in your space.

— Adriel Rose (@adriel_rose) March 1, 2023

“Covid Meetups” [COVID MEETUPS (JM)]. “A free service to seek out people, households and native companies/companies who take COVID precautions in your space.” • I performed round with it some. It appears to be Fb-driven, sadly, however you should utilize the Listing with out logging in. I get rational hits from the U.S., however not from London, UK, FWIW.

Covid Is Airborne

“Airborne transmission: a brand new paradigm with main implications for an infection management and public well being” [The New Zealand Medical Journal]. The Summary: “Recognition of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and different respiratory viruses is a paradigm shift within the An infection Prevention and Management (IPC) area, contributed to by New Zealand’s expertise in Managed Isolation Quarantine Amenities (MIQF). Slowness to embrace this shift by the World Well being Group (WHO) and different worldwide our bodies highlights the significance of making use of the precautionary precept and subjecting established theories to the identical degree of essential scrutiny as these difficult the established order. Bettering indoor air high quality to scale back an infection threat and supply different well being advantages is a brand new frontier, requiring a lot extra work at each grassroots and coverage ranges. Present applied sciences corresponding to masks, air cleaners and opening home windows can enhance air high quality of many environments now. To realize sustained, complete enhancements in air high quality that present significant safety, we additionally want extra actions that don’t depend on particular person human’s behaviour.” • The authors are attention-grabbing: a Public Well being Doctor, a Medical Director An infection Prevention and Management (!!), and two Mechanical Engineers (!!!).

“Standing 3 steps aside on escalator lowers COVID threat: Japan analysis” [The Mainichi]. Droplet dogma — or a translation concern — however I believe one can extrapolate to aerosols: “Standing three steps aside on an escalator considerably reduces the chance of COVID-19 an infection whereas it’s safer to descend than ascend one, latest analysis by a workforce involving the Kyoto Institute of Know-how confirmed. The workforce lined up 10 maskless males, every 175 centimeters tall, on an escalator and computed the dispersion of droplets assuming that the person on the entrance coughed. The traced droplets measured lower than 1.5 millimeters. The analysis confirmed that on a descending escalator, the droplets have been shortly blown upward and traveled over the heads of the others. However on an ascending one, the droplets fell to a degree across the waist of the coughing man and remained within the air for a very long time. ‘It is very important maintain a distance as human actions make (surrounding) airflow unsteady and trigger the dispersion of droplets,” mentioned Masashi Yamakawa, a professor on the Kyoto institute who led the workforce. The analysis was printed within the scientific journal Indoor Air in November.’”

Maskstravaganza

The becoming course of is much extra arduous than it needs to be:

Shoutout to the CAN99 for coming by means of for small / angular faces!!! First respirator I’ve ever tried that matches with no strap or chin changes 🥳

Large thanks to @michael_hoerger for sending me some samples! pic.twitter.com/fU996ddH3c

— alex (she/they) (@yesallcrops) March 1, 2023

Right here once more, couldn’t the masking commerce assocation set some requirements right here? Sizing and becoming requirements for masks needs to be a minimum of nearly as good as they’re for footwear and garments (imperfect, I grant). Folks shouldn’t must guess or order starter packs. This will surely assist the market!

“Group-based N95 Distribution In the course of the COVID-19 Omicron BA.1 Surge: 1-month Utilization and Worth Implications” (preprint) [psyArxiv]. “Masks and different non-pharmaceutical interventions can complement vaccines and coverings as part of multilayered mitigation toreduce the burden of COVID-19 surges. Accordingly, the investigators distributed 2,500 N95s in 5-packs with informational handouts in the course of the BA.1surge in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA(12/13/21-1/17/22). Recipients completeda voluntary 1-month follow-up utilization survey (N=153).At 1-month follow-up, contributors had usedanaverage of three.42 (68.4%) of the 5 N95s, felt safer carrying N95s (Ps<.0001 and="" discussed="" n95s="" with="" others="" would="" wear="" n95sagainif="" free.="" purchase="" intentions="" were="" price="" sensitive.="" after="" our="" distribution="" program="" the="" u.s.="" federal="" government="" distributed="" free="" but="" stockpiles="" are="" depleting="" not="" included="" in="" ongoing="" policy="" plans.="" governments="" can="" prepare="" for="" winter="" surges="" new="" variants="" by="" developing="" plans="" of="" n95s.="" we="" could="" also="" do="" serious="" work="" on="" how="" to="" move="" masks="" away="" from="" look="" feel="" a="" medical="" device="" into="" realm="" fashion="" something="" that="" somebody="" might="" normally.="" like="" athletic="" shoes.="" or="" hat.="" wearing="" mask="" pandemic="" should="" be="" as="" unremarkable="" bringing="" an="" umbrella="" case="" rain.="" ffs.="" want="" nyc="" businesses="" require="" customers="" show="" their="" faces="" href="https://pix11.com/news/local-news/police-want-nyc-businesses-to-require-customers-show-their-faces/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Pix11]. “Clients needs to be required to point out their faces earlier than being allowed into companies, NYPD officers urged on Tuesday. Eradicating a masks and permitting identification could be a “situation of entry,” NYPD Chief of Division Jeffrey Maddrey mentioned. Companies can then enable individuals to place masks again on after they’ve proven their face.” • Masks don’t cowl the face, because the eyes are seen (although maybe that messes up no matter facial recognition system the NYPD has, through which case NYPD tech is inferior to China’s). And naturally, you knew that as quickly because the anti-maskers acquired the whip hand, all this “particular person selection” foo-fra would exit the window. Commentary:

4/ So in what approach is that this an efficient technique? What does it deter? It makes it tougher to masks in public areas, & so, is a deterant in opposition to masking. It additionally units up a notion that those that masks are as much as no good; they should get with this system, obey the social compact.

— J. Offir, Ph.D. (@dontwantadothis) March 1, 2023

Battle periods are by no means nice:

Wow I’m so jealous! Technique to go! I’ve mainly gotten to the purpose the place he’ll put on the darn aura (thank goodness) however nonetheless thinks he’s 100% invincible and can exit for coffees and to eating places. I don’t have power to argue this anymore however this provides me some hope.

— Jackie 🦈 (@FiliaOmnium) March 1, 2023

However generally they’re needed!

“It’s nonetheless OK to suppose masks have been a good suggestion” [Star-Tribune]. A dialogue of the Cochane research that offers it much more credit score for scholarly integrity than it deserves. Concluding: “For a short whereas within the early levels of the pandemic, there was unity within the public response. Would society be as proactive once more?” Is determined by who’s the hegemon. Extra: “COVID mutations are unpredictable. Vaccine uptake is dwindling. In the meantime, a broad outbreak of chook flu has been spreading uncharacteristically amongst mammals. It’s not reaching individuals however may have a excessive fatality price if it did. In the meantime, COVID nonetheless kills a whole bunch of Individuals every day. You realize, in case you misplaced observe.” • As to the headline, have been and are.

Elite Malfeasance

Nice metaphor:

And set the attic on hearth…

— Sophie Block (@SophieBLock3) March 1, 2023

ID/IC at it once more:

From Mario Possamai’s 2020 report, “A Time of Worry.”

Why is that assertion defective inference? As a result of it doesn’t contemplate the impression of air flow. And it’s factually incorrect, they have been getting sick.

There’s that “gold commonplace” of proof once more. Mentioned the identical about Sars1.

— Matthew Oliver (@sameo416) March 1, 2023

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED BioBot wastewater knowledge from February 27:

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater knowledge as one of the best proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which for my part “goes unhealthy” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). Not less than we are able to spot tendencies, and evaluate present ranges to equal previous ranges.

• “Research exhibits COVID-19 charges have been possible forty-times increased than CDC estimates throughout BA.4/BA.5 dominant interval within the U.S.” [News Medical Life Sciences (NorD94)]. Authentic. n = 3042. “About 17% of research contributors reported being contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 in the course of the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 dominant interval. This equates to 44 million instances, which is far increased than the 1.8 million instances estimated by the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) throughout that interval.” • Holy moley. Readers will keep in mind I estimated six to eight instances. That is very unhealthy information, when you purchase that Covid causes immune dysregulatoin (as I do. No marvel everyone is coughing). NOTE: I ought to give a hat tip

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, printed March 1:

-0.9%. Nonetheless excessive, however finally a definite downturn.

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Knowledge):

Whole: 1,145,661 – 1,145,415 = 246 (246 * 365 = 89,790 deaths per yr, as we speak’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness). Huge leap as a result of I missed yesterday.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like all the things else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job. (Although CDC could also be jiggering the numbers quickly. Decrease, naturally.)

Stats Watch

Commodities: “Australia blocks Chinese language investor from elevating stake in uncommon earths miner” [Mining.com]. “Australian uncommon earths producer Northern Minerals (ASX: NTU) mentioned on Tuesday that the federal authorities had prevented its largest shareholder, China’s Yuxiao Fund, from elevating its stake within the firm on grounds of nationwide curiosity. Yuxiao Fund wanted the Overseas Funding Overview Board’s (FIRB) approval to extend its holding in Northern Minerals to 19.9% from 9.92%.”

Power: “Chesapeake Power to scale back drilling amid natgas worth stoop” [BIC Magazine]. “U.S. pure fuel producer Chesapeake Power Corp mentioned it might pull again on drilling and finishing wells this yr as pure fuel costs have crashed to 1 / 4 of what they have been final summer season… Chesapeake mentioned it would drop two rigs within the Haynesville area that covers elements of Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana this yr, and one rig in Marcellus shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia…. Different operators, primarily personal corporations, have been additionally pulling again exercise in that area, he mentioned. Earlier this month, Comstock Sources Inc mentioned it might minimize drilling rigs to seven from 9 this yr.”

Healthcare: “Novavax raises doubts about capability to stay in enterprise, shares fall” [Reuters]. “COVID-19 vaccine maker Novavax Inc (NVAX.O) on Tuesday raised doubts about its capability to stay in enterprise and introduced plans to slash spending as it really works to organize for a fall vaccination marketing campaign, and its shares plunged greater than 25%. The corporate mentioned there may be important uncertainty round its 2023 income, funding from the U.S. authorities, and pending arbitration with world vaccine alliance Gavi. However its money circulation forecast signifies it has ample capital to fund operations over the subsequent yr. Novavax additionally mentioned that relying on the result of its arbitration with Gavi, it may very well be required to refund all or a portion of the roughly $700 million it obtained from the group, meant to pay for doses of the corporate’s COVID vaccine for low- and middle-income nations.” • Pfizer, good job.

Manufacturing: “Hyundai was poised to turn into Tesla’s high contender. Then the U.S. authorities blindsided it” [Los Angeles Times]. “When the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6, compact electrical SUVs with base costs round $48,000, debuted a yr in the past, U.S. gross sales totaled 37,000 automobiles within the first three quarters of 2022. The Ioniq 5 and the EV6, constructed on the identical fundamental platform, collectively overtook the Ford Mustang Mach-E as second-place contender, in accordance with Edmunds. The Korean manufacturers have been poised to take the mantle as Tesla’s high challenger, and due to their cheaper price, maybe transfer the needle ahead on mass adoption of EVs. Then the Inflation Discount Act, the Biden administration’s $369-billion local weather invoice, placed on the brakes. Below the act, solely electrical automobiles assembled within the U.S. would qualify for a $7,500 buyer tax reblate, unhealthy information not only for Hyundai and Kia but additionally for all electrical automobile makers in Japan and Europe. That a part of the IRA kicked in instantly when President Biden signed the invoice in August.”

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 58 Greed (earlier shut: 58 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 60 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 1 at 12:59 PM ET.

The Gallery

Not large fan of non secular work, a minimum of fashionable ones, as a rule:

I want there have been extra like this (although maybe there’s an entire college and I simply don’t find out about it).

“The Follow of Consideration” [Andy Adams, FlakPhoto]. “Digital media is the default mode for viewing images for many people. I’ve been a longtime champion of web-based photograph experiences for apparent causes. Digital pictures are lovely, brightly backlit, and undoubtedly significant. Nonetheless, with a lot of our modern photoland expertise taking place on Instagram, they scroll by far too shortly, which implies we give them quick shrift an excessive amount of of the time. Printed images doesn’t simply last more; it affords a special form of attentional expertise that adjustments our relationship with the photographs and the individuals who make them. That form of sustained consideration is regularly below assault on social media, and it’s important to understand somebody’s images totally.” • 100% agreed.

Our Famously Free Press

“Axios Particulars Mike Wilbon’s Morning “Anti-Routine” So You Too Can Be A Productive Software Like Mike Wilbon” [Defector]. It is a sports activities controversy I don’t comply with. That mentioned: “It was solely a matter of time earlier than Axios and Michael Wilbon joined forces. When you’re unfamiliar with the bulletpoint fetishists at Axios, they’re a type of these digital cash pits like Puck and Semafor that’s designed to make you, the peasant, really feel such as you’re rubbing elbows with a few of the most linked and vacuous individuals in what’s left of the information media. When you’re unfamiliar with Wilbon, he’s the co-host of Pardon The Interruption, a preening starfucker of the best order, and a person who regards on a regular basis sports activities followers with outright disdain. I’ve hated this man’s guts for many years, and I’m able to hate Axios for simply as lengthy. So that you perceive how these two entities may need one thing in frequent. And thank god for that, as a result of on Monday Cuneyt Dil of Axios detailed Wilbon’s morning schedule, with the intention to behold it with nice awe after which really feel a lot worse about your personal station in life.” • It’s good that the spirit of Hunter Thompson is alive. (Additionally, Defector is a co-operative supported by subscriptions, and Axios may be very a lot neither of these issues. So there’s that.) Additionally, I needed to quote Semafor the opposite day. Sorry.

Class Warfare

East Palestine Poisonous Prepare Bomb:

“East Palestine’s report of devastating derailments” [Axios Columbus]. “Lengthy earlier than the Feb. 3 Norfolk Southern derailment uncovered East Palestine to hazardous chemical substances, residents suffered from a sequence of devastating rail automobile derailments that destroyed companies, ruined native infrastructure and sometimes left town caught paying for the injury… An Axios assessment of a whole bunch of outdated newspaper clippings throughout the state and into Pennsylvania recognized a minimum of 9 freight derailments in East Palestine between 1946 and 1976. All 9 occurred on the identical line now owned by Norfolk Southern.”

“New U of M Graduate Labor Union May Unionize 4,000 Jobs” [Racket]. “This marketing campaign to unionize the U of M’s grad staff started in 2020, catalyzed, partly, by the college’s response to the pandemic. There have been previous makes an attempt to unionize these 4,000-ish jobs, although [third-year PhD candidate Anya] Auerbach says the present UMN Graduate Labor Union is by far one of the best organized push. (Comparable union efforts have been defeated 5 instances on the U since 1974, Minnesota Reformer reviews.) This time the union is backed by United Electrical, Radio, and Machine Staff of America (UE), which has helped graduate staff win unions lately at MIT, Johns Hopkins, and Northwestern. Grad assistant unions exist across the Huge 10 at Iowa, Michigan, College of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Michigan State. The latest nationwide surge of unionizing grad college students “could turn into a wave,” Forbes reviews. If profitable, the UMN Graduate Labor Union would symbolize an enormous swath of jobs throughout the U.”

“Affiliation between precarious employment and BMI in the US” [Obesity]. n=7280. From the Summary: “There may be rising recognition that precarious employment is a crucial determinant of well being, which can enhance BMI by means of a number of mechanisms, together with stress. It was investigated whether or not will increase in precarious employment have been related to adjustments in BMI in the US…. Provided that even small adjustments in weight have an effect on persistent illness threat, insurance policies to enhance employment high quality warrant consideration.”

“Not Getting Vaccinated? It Is a Matter of Downside-Fixing Skills and Socio-Cognitive Polarization” [International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health]. “The method that led people to simply accept COVID-19 vaccines required the flexibility to collect, synthesize, and weigh-up info inside a novel, dynamically altering, advanced, and ambiguous context. To cope with such complexity, we hypothesized that each the flexibility of reflection and versatile adaptation performed a elementary position. Primarily based on earlier analysis on cognitive predictors of vaccine refusal, we determined to research the mixed position of two constructs, particularly, problem-solving expertise and socio-cognitive polarization (SCP), on vaccine acceptance and uptake. Two-hundred-seventy-seven US contributors accomplished a web-based survey aimed to measure problem-solving capability, by means of a rebus puzzles activity, and SCP, by means of a composite measure of absolutist pondering, political conservatism, and xenophobia. Mediation analyses indicated that SCP mediated the affiliation between problem-solving capability and vaccine acceptance, so decrease problem-solving skills related to increased polarization predicted vaccine rejection. Thus, our findings advised that low problem-solving expertise could symbolize a threat issue for COVID-19 vaccine refusal, with cognitive and social rigidity enjoying a vital position in undermining the anti-COVID-19 vaccine uptake.” • One necessary operate of the PMC is to make use of their technical and managerial expertise to deal with society-wide irruptions like pandemics. They failed. Miserably, and lethally. So who’re the silly ones? Naturally, they blame others. This text is Blue State v. Pink State hatred wrapped in verbiage, utilizing the usual trope of “in opposition to their very own pursuits.”

“America Is Making an attempt to Electrify. There Aren’t Sufficient Electricians.” [Wall Street Journals]. “Electricians, the important staff within the transition to renewable power, are in more and more quick provide. They’re wanted to put in the electric-car chargers, warmth pumps and different gear deemed important to deal with local weather change. Electricians say they’re booked a number of months out and struggling to seek out sufficient staff to maintain up with demand. Many are elevating wages and costs and fearful that they gained’t be capable to sustain as authorities local weather incentives kick in…. The median age of electricians is over 40 years outdated, according to the broader workforce. However practically 30% of union electricians are between ages 50 and 70 and near retirement, up from 22% in 2005, in accordance with the Nationwide Electrical Contractors Affiliation. The common annual electrician wage rose from roughly $50,000 to about $60,000 from 2018 to 2022, a rise roughly according to the nationwide common, in accordance with the BLS.” • In case your kids are making faculty choices….

Brooklyn hates masks too?

Information of the Wired

Science is popping:

Because it seems, Darwin’s pattern was insufficient!

Medical ethics:

“Might I by no means see within the affected person something however a fellow creature in ache.”

“Life Want Not Ever Finish” [Noema]. “Maybe essentially the most miserable scientific concept that has ever been put forth is the notorious “warmth loss of life speculation.” It’s a idea about the way forward for the universe primarily based on the second regulation of thermodynamics, which in its most well-known kind states that entropy, a sophisticated and complicated time period generally understood to easily imply “dysfunction,” tends to extend over time in a closed system. Due to this fact, if we contemplate that the universe is itself a closed system, the regulation appears to counsel that the cosmos is turning into more and more disorganized…. In actual fact, some main scientists are starting to suppose that the cosmos is turning into more and more advanced and arranged over time because of the legal guidelines of physics and the evolutionary dynamics that emerge from them. Seth Lloyd, Eric Chaisson and Freeman Dyson are among the many well-known names who’ve questioned whether or not ‘dysfunction’ is growing within the cosmos. Outdoors of physics, complexity theorist Stuart Kauffman, neuroscientist Christof Koch and Google’s director of engineering Ray Kurzweil all imagine that the universe is just not destined to develop extra disorganized endlessly, however extra advanced and wealthy with info. … David Deutsch, the daddy of quantum computation… argues that there are not any elementary limits to information creation. [This is a very strong claim] as a result of it particularly means that life within the universe needn’t come to an finish.” • Fascinatingly, Maimonides has the identical thought as Noema’s author: “Data is immense and the spirit of man can lengthen infinitely to complement itself every day with new necessities.”

Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From AM:

AM writes: “That is what I acquired within the Huge Apple!” I acquired to this a bit late, nevertheless it’s nonetheless pretty!

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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