The pattern in actual median weekly earnings appears totally different relying on deflator.
Determine 1: Median weekly earnings, deflated by CPI (blue), deflated by Chained CPI seasonally adjusted (tan), each in logs, 2010Q4=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Chained CPI seasonally adjusted on month-to-month foundation utilizing X-13/X-11. Supply: BLS, NBER, and creator’s calculations.
Utilizing the CPI, actual median weekly earnings in 2022Q3 are slighly decrease than they had been pre-pandemic, whereas utilizing the chained CPI, they had been slighlty larger.