The FY 24 Funds was launched immediately. As a result of the forecast was locked down in late November, and the macro outlook has modified a lot, the administration felt compelled so as to add an “Replace on the Administration’s Financial Assumptions”. Right here’s the forecast (based mostly on Desk S-9 within the Funds).
Determine 1: GDP as reported (black), Administration forecast (sky blue squares), CBO projection (brown), Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (pink), GDPNow (3/8) (gentle inexperienced triangle). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA 2022Q4 2nd launch, FY 2024 Funds, Desk S-9, CBO, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
The Troika (OMB-CEA-Treasury) forecast is fairly just like the CBO projection finalized in January, and barely much less optimistic than the February Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (for end-2023).
Desk S-9 is reproduced beneath: