Nonfarm payroll employment in September was barely above consensus (263K vs 250K), displaying continued development. That is the image of key macro indicators adopted by the NBER Enterprise Cycle Courting Committee, plus IHS-Markit month-to-month GDP.
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (darkish blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 10/4 for NFP (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Lilac shading denotes dates related to a hypothetical recession in H1. Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, by way of FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (10/4/2022 launch), and writer’s calculations.
Amongst these, employment and private earnings ex-current transfers are central. Therefore, the employment report is noteworthy in its (continued) energy.
The prelminary benchmark revision signifies that the labor market has been stronger than the official NFP collection signifies. In Determine 2, I present the official collection (blue), the implied benchmark revised collection (mild blue), and the civilian employment collection from the Present Inhabitants Survey, adjusted to the nonfarm payroll idea (crimson).
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (darkish blue), implied collection incorporating preliminary benchmark revision (mild blue), civilian employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll idea (crimson), in 000’s, s.a., all on log scale. Lilac shading denotes dates related to a hypothetical recession in H1. Supply: BLS, and writer’s calculations.
Be aware the continued development within the labor collection even in the course of the slowdown in GDP throughout H1, which some observers have tagged as a recessionary interval.
