As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% development (inexperienced) Supply: NY Fed by way of FRED, OECD, WECI, and creator’s calculations.
The WEI fell from the earlier week, all the way down to 2.1% from 2.8%, whereas the Weekly Tracker continued to rise. The divergence, which isn’t stunning, given the massive variations in methodologies, has closed in current weeks. The WEI depends on correlations in ten sequence out there on the weekly frequency (e.g., unemployment claims, gasoline gross sales, retail gross sales). The Weekly Tracker — at 2.0% — is a “massive knowledge” method that makes use of Google Tendencies and machine studying to trace GDP.
The WEI studying for the week ending 10/1 of two.1% is interpretable as a y/y quarter development of two.1% if the two.1% studying had been to persist for a complete quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of two% is interpretable as a y/y development charge of two% for yr ending 10/1 (this sequence was revised downward noticeably from final launch). The Baumeister et al. studying of three.4% is interpreted as a 1.4% development charge in extra of long run development development charge. Common development of US GDP over the 2000-19 interval is about 2%, so this means a 3.4% development charge for the yr ending 10/1.
Since these are year-on-year development charges, it’s potential we had been in a recession in H1 as one observer steered a bit over a month in the past, but it surely (nonetheless) appears unlikely.
