As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced) Supply: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, and creator’s calculations.
The WEI fell barely from the earlier week, to 2.2% from 2.3%, whereas the Weekly Tracker rose. It’s truthful to say there some divergence, which isn’t shocking, given the big variations in methodologies. The WEI depends on correlations in ten collection out there on the weekly frequency (e.g., unemployment claims, gas gross sales, retail gross sales). The Weekly Tracker — at 1.5% — is a “huge information” method that makes use of Google Tendencies and machine studying to trace GDP.
The WEI studying for the week ending 10/8 of two.72% is interpretable as a y/y quarter progress of two.2% if the two.2% studying had been to persist for a whole quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of 1.5% is interpretable as a y/y progress charge of 1.5% for 12 months ending 9/24 (this collection was revised downward noticeably from final launch). The Baumeister et al. studying of 1.2% is interpreted as a 1.2% progress charge in extra of long run pattern progress charge. Common progress of US GDP over the 2000-19 interval is about 2%, so this suggests a 3.2% progress charge for the 12 months ending 10/8.
Since these are year-on-year progress charges, it’s doable we had been in a recession in H1 as one observer steered a month in the past, however it (nonetheless) appears unlikely.